Swine Flu H1N1 - Facts and Figures

Swine flu is a serious infection but in most cases no more so than the regular seasonal flu which we experience every winter. Mortality resulting from H1N1 is less than one percent which is less than that for the regular flu. H1N1 does however tend to infect young healthy adults and children at a much higher rate than it infects those over 55 years of age. Infants and young children are also highly susceptible to infection. Many of those deaths resulting from swine flu are due to complications or underlying previously present conditions. Swine flu is not a killer disease when compared to the SARS epidemic of a few years ago which had a mortality rate as high as 15%.

In short the swine flu pandemic should not cause any panic since it is no more dangerous than the common seasonal flu. Did we mention the word pandemic? Many people have great fear of this word. Pandemic does not mean that it is going to be the end of the world. All it means is that the virus has spread widely around the world.

Symptoms of swine flu include fever, sore throat, running nose, cough and in some cases nausea and vomiting. This is going to make you and your family miserable if you are infected. However, it is not any different from having a cold or the common flu. The symptoms can be minimised by a doctor's guidance, analgesics and suitable antiviral drugs. When you compare this to the suffering caused by other diseases such as a stroke, cancer or malaria,it does not amount to much.

This illness is only going to last for a week in many cases. In other cases, it can be shorter. It is not going to haunt you for a couple of months as some diseases can. During this week, you are going to be in isolation and resting. No drips, no injections and no constant testing will be involved. Tamiflu will be there and in many studies, it reduces the duration of the flu by a couple of days.

When the fever goes away, you are going to feel weak for a few days, but you will very soon be back to normal. There will be no slow recovery or lingering effects. In fact, you will now have strengthened immunity to this flu. Panic is not at all necessary when you think you may have contracted H1N1 swine flu. In fact, it is no more dangerous than the regular sweasonal flu infection which of course is quite nasty but short lived and rarely fatal.

How Long Does Swine Flu Last?

Many people wonder how long swine flu lasts but as with many other disease it does depend upon the strength of the attack and whether other symptoms are present.

Essentially, just remember that swine flu is treatable and the earlier you get a diagnosis the better. Isn't it better to seek the opinion of a medical professional as early as possible rather than wait a few more days? If it is swine influenza you have caught it early, if it's not, then nothing lost. The visible basic swine flu symptoms can come and go in a matter of 5 days. However, for victims of the flu who have other complications and symptoms it can take up to 3 weeks or even longer in the very worst cases.

Worth noting is that swine flu if treated early and is free of other health problems (like unrelated respiratory disease) can be cured with regular medications which will also boost your immune system and make it less likely you will suffer a future attack. Although it must be said that since the flu affects various systems in one's body, some parts of the diseases consequence is not yet fully understood. And as ironic as it may sound, the more cases we see the quicker full treatments will become available - as each case has the potential to advance our knowledge of the disease.

Despite the contraction of swine flu being dangerous to health and indeed life, as stated previously it is treatable. It follows then that at the first sign of symptoms you must seek medical advice.

A-H1N1 Swine Flu Likely Originated in US Lab

When the first reported cases of A/H1N1 swine flu emerged in April 2009, it was widely believed that the novel influenza strain originated in Mexico. By late June, when evidence failed to materialize confirming a Mexican origin, a new theory hypothesized that A/H1N1 originated in Asia and was transported unintentionally via an unsuspecting human carrier to North America. This though, probably is not the case. Instead it is likely, though not confirmed, that A/H1N1, is a genetically engineered creation that originated in the United States, specifically in a lab in Madison, Wisconsin that had accidentally escaped through some kind of contamination.

The evidence for this scenario is compelling:

1. Prior to the A/H1N1 outbreak, The Institute for Molecular Virology (IMV) located in Bock Labs (administered by the University of Wisconsin-Madison) had been involved in a transmission capability study for vaccine production. This study involved reverse genetic engineering of a tissue specimen that had been extracted from a deceased Intuit woman who had succumbed to Spanish influenza that had killed up to 50 million people during the 1918-19 pandemic.

2. The current A/H1N1 version is a "highly unusual virus" never seen before that combines genetic material from North American human, avian, and swine flus and Eurasian swine flu.[1] Such a combination is unprecedented having never been found in pigs, birds, or people per The Associated Press, and likely improbable to have emerged naturally. When the fact that no close relatives of the current strain exist and IMV's mission - to conduct virology research and training at a molecular level - is taken into account, creation through artificial genetic engineering offers the best explanation.

3. Retired Australian researcher Adrian Gibbs, who played a leading role in the development of Tamiflu®, a highly-effective anti-flu drug, theorized on May 12, 2009 that the new strain of A/H1N1 likely escaped from a laboratory setting because it exhibited characteristics "of having undergone 'accelerated evolution' such as what happens when flu viruses try to adapt to growth in eggs" during vaccine studies.[2] Although The World Health Organization (WHO) swiftly ruled out Mr. Gibbs' theory a day later, it is implausible that sufficient research to ascertain a conclusion could be completed in only 24 hours.

4. When A/H1N1's existence had been firmly established in the United States by May 10, 2009, Wisconsin and Illinois had nearly a third of the country's cases. Since then Wisconsin has consistently led the nation despite its population of 5,627,967 based on July 2008 estimates versus the larger states - California, Texas, New York, Illinois and even Michigan with July 2008 populations of 36,755,666, 24,326,974, 19,490,297, 12,901,563 and 10,003,422, respectively. By June 12, 2009 when dispersion had set in, Wisconsin and Illinois still accounted for more than a quarter of U.S. cases. Demographically speaking this disproportionate caseload makes little sense. However, when Madison, WI is viewed as the point of origin, the two-State caseload provides incontrovertible evidence of the virus' inception. When A/H1N1 likely escaped from IMV, it immediately impacted the city's environs and nearby locales including Illinois (since a sizeable number of Wisconsinites commute to that state each day) before spreading to Mexico (likely transmitted by a U.S. national since Granja Carroll hog farms located in La Gloria where the first case of A/H1N1 is believed to have occurred, is a subsidiary of American-based Smithfield Foods), other parts of the United States and ultimately much of the rest of the world.

Centers For Disease Control (CDC) Bulletins:

5/10/2009: Wisconsin: 357 Cases (14.1% of the national caseload); Illinois: 466 Cases (18.4% of the national caseload)

6/12/2009: Wisconsin: 3008 Cases (16.8% of the national caseload); Illinois: 1983 Cases (11.1% of the national caseload)

5. To date the A/H1N1 2009 pandemic version of swine flu has not been found to be endemic in global pig stocks discounting natural mutation and initial pig to human transmission theories. Furthermore, none of the pig stocks in Wisconsin have tested positive for the novel A/H1N1 strain that currently afflicts the world.

6. Statements and actions point to prior knowledge. As early as April 25, 2009 when the new A/H1N1 strain was officially detected in only 3 states (11 cases), a top CDC official, Dr. Anne Schuchat stated, "We do not think we can contain the spread of this virus." By April 28, 2009 Vice President Joseph Biden ruled out quarantining Mexico citing limited benefits since "the swine flu virus [had] already penetrated many states" (64 cases in 5 states). An immediate quarantine when news of the A/H1N1 outbreak in Mexico surfaced on April 23, 2009 likely was not implemented because the CDC and top U.S. government officials had already been alerted about the accidental escape from IMV and consequent unconfirmed and unreported infections. A quarantine made little sense since cases were rapidly evolving in the United States and because such a step would likely have drawn suspicion when such cases were subsequently confirmed and reported.

7. Samples of the new A/H1N1 virus were already present at the CDC prior to receipt of Mexican specimens. Per CDC virologist Ruben Donis in an interview conducted by Science Direct (published April 29, 2009) - the CDC had completed sequencing of the novel A/H1N1 strain two weeks earlier or by April 15, 2009 - three days before Mexican officials shipped swab samples to its Atlanta headquarters for testing.

Based on the compelling facts above, conclusive evidence exists that the outbreak of A/H1N1 swine flu that has led to the WHO's first pandemic declaration in 41 years, was created synthetically and likely can be traced back to IMV's lab in Madison, WI. As a result, the moderate risk based on A/H1N1's characteristics and potential threat especially to a generation that has never endured a pandemic and those with pre-existing medical conditions (asthma and other respiratory disorders, diabetes, heart problems, immune deficiency disorders, and pregnancy, to name a few) whose immune systems are ill-prepared or equipped to recognize and combat the novel strain, respectively, must be taken seriously. At the writing of this article, this is not being done (e.g. The New York City Department of Health stated on its website as late as June 25, 2009 - "Most cases of influenza-like illness do not need to be tested for H1N1" even though seasonal influenza has disappeared for the summer, failure to isolate suspected emergency room cases facilitating contagion, etc.). Continued failure to do so may result in between 1 million (based on a .25% mortality rate on existing WHO estimates that up to a third of the world's population may be infected) to 25 million or more deaths since people will be treated much further into the illness (after serious complications have developed) and/or if the virus mutates into a more lethal form resulting in a 1+% mortality rate that is already being exhibited in Argentina, a country that has just entered the winter season.

H1N1 is in a Losing Position With Sambucol

Back around the 2nd of May, 2009 when Twitter had the trending topic of "swine flu" or "h1n1", I got to reading the posts and then started doing some investigative work on my own, only to find that there was a ton of "mis-information" all over the Net. Everything from what the symptoms are to what you could do to protect yourself and your family. What I found was astonishing!

What I didn't see were warning of the dangers of Tamiflu or Relenza or any alternative methods to the CDC and FDA's recommended Tamiflu/Relenza party line.

First, the Danger Zone
I personally believe that we should be given ALL the available information so that we can make sound, informed decisions about what we should, could, or would do.

Let's start with the "standard" line of taking Tamiflu or Relenza if or when you get this H1N1 flu. To start with, there have been zero, nada, zilch studies to the effectiveness of either of these medications to combat this H1N1 flu virus. Next are the adverse side effects that at the end of the commercial they rattle off so many so fast that your brain is turned into mush and you just dismiss them because we've become so desensitized to them they don't even register anymore. For the record, here they are: nausea, diarrhea, stomach upset, chills, fever, achiness, vomiting, and headaches. Doesn't that sound more like the flu than the cure? If you manage to get some, and the rumor is that we will run out long before the vast majority of us get the flu, you'll need to take it within the first 48 hours of the first symptoms, and in doing so, it will shorten the duration of a "normal" flu cycle from 7 days to a mere 5.7 days, a whopping 1.3 day reprieve, which if you're feeling really bad is certainly welcomed to some degree.

How Tamiflu and Relenza works. The drugs in Tamiflu and Relenza are Oseltamivir and Zanamivir respectively. The object is to keep the proteins on the flu virus microbe (the H and N components) from attaching themselves to a healthy cell, injecting its RNA into that cell, turning it into a virus microbe factory. The method the pharmaceutical industry has taken is to get something into the body that will neutralize the associated enzyme that will inactivate the Hemagglutinin or Neuraminidase proteins so that attachment to the cell is now impossible. The side effects come from neutralizing an enzyme that other parts of your body apparently need, upsetting the balance that our Creator put there in the first place.

Then there is the miraculous extension of the expiration date of certain lots of Tamiflu that expired in June 2009, now expiring in 2011. Tamiflu is normally "good" for 36 months, with a vast majority of the stockpiled Tamiflu expiring at the end of June 2009. There is apparently some kind of testing that the FDA has approved to figure out if a "lot" of Tamiflu is still potent or not. After some of this testing, it has been granted that certain lots of Tamiflu will now be good until the end of May 2011. I don't know about you, and I certainly DON'T know the pharmaceutical industry, but if my milk is stated to expire on August 5th, drinking it on August 31st could be a very unpleasant experience.

And of course, the issue of studies. The most recent "study" from a well respected university, Stanford, didn't really do a new study at all, they simply obtained the data collected from 7 previous studies (funded by Big Pharma), combed through the information and has concluded that Tamiflu will NOW prevent the H1N1 flu. Its a generically sweeping statement, that their conclusion is that Tamiflu will prevent the H1N1 flu, but what is left out of that statement is that there were ONLY 2 study groups of people, Caucasians and Japanese, and that they were healthy individuals, all apparently over the age of 18 with no known infirmities or diseases. So if you are under 18 or have asthma, diabetes, cancer, obese, or in any other way infirmed, non-Caucasian and non-Japanese, this study IS NOT conclusive that taking Tamiflu before you get the flu is preventative. And now the CDC is back pedalling and saying NOT to take Tamiflu as a preventative as it may enhance the virus to mutate, which we definitely DO NOT want to see.

Most of what we see flies in the face of science. Science says that we have controlled experiments where duplicable results have been verified. Then the results are published with clear definitions of what they were able to prove. Negative proof such as "Do we know that it DOESN'T prevent the flu in children under 18?" is a negative proof, just because we don't know if it doesn't prevent the flu, a conclusion that it "will" is not possible.

Second, the Landing Zone
To me there is absolutely nothing worse than telling me that I shouldn't do something or that something may be bad for me WITHOUT an alternative.

With a head-to-head against Tamiflu or Relenza, I actually not only found an alternative, but found one that leaves them in the dust.

In the 1990's, an Isreali virologist was commissioned to find a way to prevent the suspected coming virus related pandemics. What she found was TERRIFIC!

We've all heard of the healing power of Elderberries. What the good Doctor found was that in these Black Elderberries is an amino acid called L-Sambucus. What this amino acid does is bind to the proteins (the H and N components) of the flu virus microbe, rendering it unable to attach itself to a cell and starting the microbe manufacturing process that makes you sick. So it has the exact same effect as Oseltamivir or Zanamivir yet without the side effects.

And with the University of Oslo, Norway school of Medicine conducting a study of flu patients, their study showed an incredible shortening of the duration of the flu from 7.1 days to only 3.1 days, that's 4 whole days and cutting the symptoms of the flu by over half. All with NO side effects.

The one caveat of the study is that it wasn't conducted specifically on H1N1 flu patients, so the negative proof also applies here.

In Summary
If you listen to the CDC and the FDA, their recommendation is to get and take Tamiflu or Relenza to prevent or shorten the duration of the upcoming second wave of the H1N1 Flu Pandemic. If you trust the studies and can take the leap that enough information is available that these drugs can and will help you, have at it.

On the other hand, if an amino acid called L-Sambucus has been studied and shown as good or better results with no side effects from a reputable university and you can take the leap that enough information is available that L-Sambucus can and will help you, have at it also.

The H1N1 Virus in Children Under 3 Years of Age

Here are some facts regarding the H1N1 flu virus. Swine influenza is a flu virus usually found in pigs. The virus occasionally changes (mutates) and becomes infectious in humans. The reason for concern is that we have little or no immunity against it. Because of this the virus has the potential to spread quickly around the world and may be more difficult to treat than the usual seasonal human flu virus.

If your child is 6 months to 3 years old, he or she should be vaccinated. Since babies under 6 months have a poor vaccine response, it is recommended that the parents and caretakers receive the vaccine as the best defense is having them flu-free.

At first it was stated that it would take 2 shots for the vaccine to be effective. The latest information is that only one will be needed. The first batch will be available sometime in mid October. The vaccine is expected to be very effective and safe. Vaccines today are highly purified so as to eliminate any potential contaminants. Today scientists use only selected viral proteins, not the entire virus as they did in the 1970's.

Another concern of parents is if the vaccine causes autism. If there a concern about the mercury-based preservative thimersol you can request one of the thimersol-free versions: the nasal vaccine or single-dose preloaded syringe. The nasal version cannot be given to children under 24 months and children under 5 with asthma. If you are allergic to eggs you should avoid the vaccine as it is egg-based.

Until the vaccine is available and becomes effective after you receive it, you can protect yourself by washing your hands frequently with soap and water for at least twenty seconds and avoid touching the eyes and nose. Alcohol hand gels are also effective. Cover your mouth when you cough and your nose when you sneeze to avoid spreading germs. And finally if you or your child is sick, stay home until the fever has gone away for 24 hours without the use of medicine.

The symptoms to look for in a baby or young child for the H1N1 virus are Flu Symptoms: a high fever over 101 degrees following a cold, a worsening cough. A Rash that accompanies the fever. A blue color to the skin which means lack of oxygen. Stops drinking, explosive diarrhea or vomiting resulting in dehydration. Breathing problems. Body aches. Will not wake up. All these symptoms require immediate emergency care.

The H1N1 Effect

When faced with perceived health risks, consumers make purchasing decisions about a given product based on fear, conjecture and media hype versus the facts concerning the actual risk.

In the first two years after the term "Swine Flu" was used to describe the illness that mutated and jumped toH1N1 WHO Logo humans from pigs, the U.S. Pork Industry suffered losses estimated to be in excess of $5 billion. This despite the reality that what came to be known more frequently as H1N1 - partially as a result of the outcries from farmers - cannot be contracted from eating pork. And those loss figures do not, of course, include either the collateral damage caused to meat retailers and restaurants or comparable figures from other regions of the world.

Global reaction to the threat of BSE - most of us know it as "Mad Cow Disease" - was far in excess to the actual threat to humans.

Have you heard anyone say, during the past year or two, "I'll never buy anything made in China again" or the more frequent variation "I'll never eat food containing ingredients from China again - or give it to my pets."

Any number of U.S. food recalls, even after government announcements made it clear that the problems impacted or originated from a limited geographic area, prompted much more widespread consumer avoidance until the fear subsided - usually non-coincidental with the media and blogosphere finding something else to panic about.

I'm not a psychologist and hence will not try to explain why people react as they have. As a crisis management professional, I need only to know that they have, and will again, demonstrate what I call "The H1N1 Effect,", which occurs when consumers make fear-based irrational decisions about a perceived health risk that wreak extensive financial damage, threaten organizational and/or brand reputations, and cause severe business interruptions.

Knowing this, it is incumbent on crisis managers, particularly those involved with products which could potentially impact consumer health and/or safety, to be prepared when their stakeholders could be the next victim of "The H1N1 Effect." Some elements of preparedness would include:

* Closely tracking developments related to the health/safety of your products, using expert resources to help you spot early warning signs of risk.

* "What if..." brainstorming involving internal parties and external experts, the goal being to think through the process you would have to follow to respond should a worst-case scenario occur.

* Creating educational materials about your products and/or industry and its health/safety practices that could be widely and rapidly disseminated in response to the demand that would no doubt be created by an "H1N1 Effect" event.

* Ensuring that your organization/industry has a very strong online presence that can be used in the near-term to build a cushion of goodwill and during a crisis for rapid communication.

* Creating business continuity and crisis communications plans, with the latter including internal and external elements, both B2B and direct-to-consumer.

* Ensuring that appropriate personnel are trained to use those plans, to include media training and simulation exercises.

A lesson learned the hard way by some industries is that you shouldn't rely on the U.S. government or even your own trade organizations to protect your reputation and bottom line when the stuff hits the fan. For weeks after BSE was finally detected in a U.S.-based cow, I couldn't find a single restaurant server, or grocery store employee, who could tell me with certainty that the beef I bought at their locations was safe to eat. The government's announcements were all in consumer-unfriendly jargon, and the industry associations were completely unprepared despite the known threat. If they had been prepared to support their distribution chain with messaging that would minimize loss of sales, I would have been given a reassuring handout right on the scene.

H1N1 vaccine production to reach three billion in 2010

DPA September 21st, 2009 HONG KONG - The production of swine flu vaccines is on track to reach three billion inoculations within the next year, the head of the World Health Organization, Margaret Chan, said Monday.

About 25 companies worldwide are now producing vaccines against the H1N1 virus, Chan said on the opening day of the annual general meeting for WHO’s western Pacific region in Hong Kong.
“Most of these companies are in developed countries, but I am very pleased to see some developing countries are also moving into making their own vaccine, and China is one of the first examples,” Chan said.
WHO’s director general said five companies in China had received official approval to manufacture the vaccine against the virus, which has so far killed about 3,500 people worldwide.
Chan joined health experts from 37 countries and areas in the western Pacific region for the meeting, which runs until Friday.
In addition to the H1N1 pandemic, other topics on the agenda included malaria, HIV/AIDS and the impact of the global financial crisis on health services.

H1n1 News
India's swine flu toll jumps to 329
French supplier of seasonal flu vaccines acknowledges delay in producing doses for US
Taiwan launches world's first anti-swine flu spray
Seven swine flu deaths take India's toll to 316 (Roundup)
Two more swine flu deaths in Delhi, toll 13
Obama says $5B in stimulus grants from NIH will help research cures for cancer, diseases
Six deaths in India take swine flu toll to 309
Swine flu vaccine ready, enters Europe